The Dem IM

To:	MarkWarner
	The Dem IM: You would be the greatest president of my lifetime. It's too bad you're so damn boring.

Primary Strategy

Opposition
The absence of an incumbent vice-president or president in the upcoming race has created a wide-open field on candidates in both parties’ nominating processes. Of course, several of this year’s candidates can be dismissed as non-factors that have no realistic shot at the nomination. Among these include Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, Wesley Clark and Arianna Huffington. Those that have not already will either drop out or fall off of the media radar before Iowa. Bill Richardson’s decision to run against Senator Pete Domenici and John Kerry’s decision to sit out this year’s election leaves Edwards with three major opponents. Among those that are left, unfortunately, the diverse competition will make it, once again, difficult for Edwards to lock up the nomination.

Hillary Clinton
Background
As far and away the money and name ID leader of the pack, Hillary is seen as an early front-runner for the nomination. After moving to the center throughout most of her Senate career, she has become an outspoken critic of the current administration in the last several months. Clearly, this is an attempt to ingratiate herself to partisan primary voters.

Analysis
Hillary is destined to become the Howard Dean of 2008. That is, as the initial frontrunner, she will be attacked from all sides and forced to fire back at her opponents. This will be picked up in the media as “Angry Hillary” and Democrats will realize that she is too polarizing a figure and dump her as a realistic choice.

Mark Warner
Background
As one of the highest approved former governors in the country and a Democrat to win in a “red state,” Warner will be a strong competitor for the nomination. Warner is a near folk hero in Virginia for his work balancing the budget and providing economic opportunity throughout the state. Constitutionally limited to only one term, Warner was instrumental in getting his lieutenant governor Tim Kaine elected to the governorship in 2005.

Analysis
Warner would be unbeatable if not for his utter lack of charisma. Warner fails to excite voters outside of Virginia with the intensity needed of a great candidate. Nevertheless, with a great deal of support inside and outside of the beltway as the next Bill Clinton, he has enough money and endorsements to be considered the front-runner.

Russ Feingold
Background
The maverick senator from Wisconsin is most widely known for the McCain-Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act. Recently, however, he has been the loudest critic of the Bush administration and supporter of Congressional and elections reform. His support comes from the so-called “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party” popularized by Howard Dean.

Analysis
Feingold is practically unelectable in a national election as a twice-divorced currently unmarried Jewish man. Most primary voters realize this and despite their support for Feingold are hesitant to vote for him. However, he has cornered the market on activist and Internet support and, if he becomes a media darling, surge ahead to win the nomination.

Conclusion
In this race, Edwards finds himself between a rock and a hard place. The record of Mark Warner as a “Southerner that can win” and the populism of Russ Feingold have left Edwards in a difficult spot. With both of his signature issues neutralized by his opponents, Edwards must forge a bold new vision to win the primary.

Identity
Edwards must play his “son of a mill worker” card as often as possible. He needs voters to feel that he “cares about people like me” and is willing to fight for their dreams. Edwards’ work on the issue of poverty has served him well in this effort throughout the last four years.

Narrative
Working with that identity, Edwards must paint a picture of an America that has forgotten “its tired, your poor, its huddled masses yearning to breathe free.” Further, the point must be made that government has forgotten that its primary function is to serve the people. The perfect manifestation of this argument is the government response to Hurricane Katrina. Edwards has done a lot of work helping to gather and distribute funds and build infrastructure in the Gulf Coast and he needs to speak of these experiences. This race must be a referendum on whether voters care about their fellow citizens’ welfare or choose to blissfully ignore it.

Vision
In the primary season, I do not believe it is particularly necessary to produce a clear, complete vision of the country under the candidate’s leadership. Rather, it is necessary to produce a vision of a general campaign that speaks to voters’ values and hopes for victory. On this account, I believe the media will do the work for the Edwards campaign. Edwards’ sunny demeanor will play in the press as more personable and likely to connect with voters than either Warner or Feingold (or Gore and Kerry) for that matter. If Edwards can produce his raison d’etre, the vision of a triumphant Edwards candidacy should become clear.

Primary Implementation

Though the primary calendar is still in flux pending court battles over when New Hampshire can participate, it is clear that everything will begin with the Iowa caucuses. With the schedule nearly as front-loaded as 2004, it is clear we will need to dump all of our resources into Iowa and hope for a victory. The top two candidates in the Iowa caucuses and the national polls immediately following will be the only true contenders for the nomination. After Iowa, if Edwards is still in the race, the money will flow in to the newly minted top-tier candidate.
Edwards was successful in his 2004 primary campaign by staying positive and above the fray.

It only makes sense that a similar strategy be employed this cycle. Advertisements should focus on Edwards, his concern for impoverished peoples, and his commitment to help America help those people. In debates, Edwards should try not to attack his opponents but rather claim the higher moral ground and suggest that they do not have the experience on these matters that he does. Though Feingold will probably have the preponderance of Internet resources, Edwards must reach out to enough small donors and activists to build the illusion of a movement before that movement actually begins. Labor unions and worker’s rights groups will be key to this coalition.


TAGS: Heart, Muscle, Gut, Framing, Democratic Message, Hillary Clinton, Russ Feingold, Mark Warner, John Edwards, 2008 Presidential Election